Peak flows hydrological analysis in the upper basin of the Medellín river (Colombia) with stationary and non-stationary conditions
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In the upper basin of the Medellín River (Colombia) a hydrologic study was carried out to analyze the rainfall-runoff relationships in an event-scale, for the estimation of the maximum streamflow regime associated with different return periods in the basin and its tributary sub-basins, through hydrological modeling that considers the existence of climate change. This study is composed of the characterization of the basin of the study area, as well as the hydrological characterization, which includes the analysis of measured data with high temporal resolution of precipitation and the river levels. Different methods were considered to obtain the necessary information for the execution of a semi-distributed hydrological modeling activities, using the HEC-HMS. The model was calibrated by the simulation of 5 maximum streamflow events of the year 2021 and then it was run with different configurations of the antecedent moisture condition, rainfall-runoff models and stationary and non-stationary conditions (in rainfall), the latter to assess potential effects of the climate change. According to the results, the relative differences between the modeling cases with stationary and non-stationary conditions are, on average, negligible, with values between 3 and 5% in the considered cases, with the non-stationary cases having higher magnitudes of streamflow.
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Accepted 2024-03-22
Published 2024-05-14
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