Simulation model for the evaluation of environmental policies through the characterization of air pollution in the city of Bogotá using system dynamics

Abstract

Poor air quality in large cities such as Bogotá, due to fixed and mobile emission sources of particulate matter,
negatively affects the social, economic and ecological systems of the city. Population growth is one of the main
causes that influence air pollution. Therefore, it is considered necessary to analyze the cause-effect relationships of
pollution, its sources and the effects on the population. For this reason, developing a model using computer tools
such as system dynamics, which can evaluate different environmental policy scenarios, will help to reduce pollution
levels and improve the life quality of the population. The methodology used was quasi-experimental with a
quantitative approach, divided into four stages, gathering information, proposing the causal diagram, developing the
simulation model and evaluating scenarios. Vensim® was the software used as the simulation tool. As a result, it was
found that highly polluting stationary and mobile sources cause an uncontrolled increase in PM10. It was also found
that annual conversion rates to clean technologies must be 10% per year or higher to achieve a 50% reduction in PM10 levels, in the medium and long term. The main conclusions were to determine that the use of simulation
technologies such as system dynamics are very useful to formulate more effective environmental policies. The
simulation presented the need for environmental policies to be long-term structural policies that do not vary
depending on the change of government.