Estimación de los límites aceptables de tolerancia del costo en ambientes de incertidumbre utilizando simulación de Monte Carlo
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Debido a la incertidumbre existente en los procesos productivos, las organizaciones necesitan establecer en qué
momento una variación en el costo con respecto a una estimación de referencia se considera aceptable y cuando se deben emprender acciones correctivas, preventivas o de mejora. Considerar valores tolerables genera la idea que el costo no es un parámetro determinístico, sino que puede oscilar en un rango definido, por lo que las estimaciones que pertenezcan a dicho rango se consideran normales y las que estén por fuera generan medidas de intervención por parte de los tomadores de decisiones. Este artículo presenta una metodología que permite establecer el intervalo de tolerancia. La metodología utiliza un modelo matricial de costeo basado en actividades que incorpora la simulación Monte Carlo para representar la variabilidad inherente en cada uno de los procesos. La metodología fue aplicada en un caso de estudio en el sector transporte obteniendo como resultado el rango de valores de control, el cual sirve como base para la toma de decisiones tácticas y operativas dentro de la organización.
Víctor J. Jiménez , Universidad del Valle, Departamento de Contabilidad y Finanzas, Cali, Colombia
https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9377-5670
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Aceptado 2021-11-09
Publicado 2022-05-26
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